State of Origin Game 2 preview

Here we are again. New South Wales have once again scored a try too late in Game 1, making it look closer than it was, losing 18–14 and heading into a win or go home Game 2. In 2019 after a 18–14 loss the Blues bounced back to blow Queensland off the field with a 34 point Victory.

Blues fans will be looking for history to repeat itself and and the hyper passionate Queenslanders will be pleading for their Maroons to close the series out with a game to play. Lets take a look at how the Blues can even out control of the series and the ways in which the Maroons can stop them.

Team changes

Both teams have made a few changes. If you read my previous article on what the Blues got wrong in Game 1, then you will know that I gave my thoughts on what changes the blues should have made. And old Freddy and I don’t exactly see eye to eye. I do think that in the Blues case, they have gotten better and in Queensland’s, they’ve filled the holes of injury as well as they can and look as good if not better.

Queensland have made four changes to their winning side. With injuries to both Brimson and Welch, Dunamis Lui and Valentine Holmes come into the team. Jaydn Su’A replaces the dropped Coen Hess and Moeaki Fotuaika debuts off the bench. At the very least, I don’t think QLD lose much with these changes. Welch is great and his impact can’t be replaced, however, Lui will do a good job in the starting role and Fotuaika’s impact off the bench is exactly what they need to match the Blues interchange. Su’A is a better player than Hess and so makes the starting side stronger and Holmes, though possibly not fully match fit, will at the very least do the job and at best (worst for Blues fans) be one of the best on field.

Meanwhile, the Blues have made six changes. Though they weren’t the six changes I thought should be made, they do improve the team. Fittler has given his forward pack and bench a make-over and dropped his five-eighth, with Haas to start over Paulo, Yeo, Finucane and Nathan Brown coming onto the bench and the previous number 14 , Cody Walker, slotting into the number six jumper.

I love the addition of Yeo and Finucane and think Paulo off the bench will give NSW a huge impact. The Blues look stronger than they did in Game 1 but as seen in my ‘Poorly predicting State of Origin Game 1’, the Blues had the strongest lineup on paper in the first game too. Unfortunately, the game isn’t played on paper. They will actually have to play well, which leads me to my next point.

Forwards, Aggression and Set Completion

It’s simple. Forwards win games. Everyone knows it. To win the game, the Blues forwards must win the game within the game against the Maroons forward pack. It is obviously more difficult to do it than to write it, but its a simple truth. In Game 1, the Blues were winning the middle for about the first 30 minutes and then they fell off. The Blues bench is much improved, despite not possessing a true utility, and their interchange forwards will provide a spark that will stave away that loss of energy and aggression that the Blues encountered in the first game.

The most important reward for dominating the middle for the Blues is that it allows the best running hooker in the game get out of dummy-half and do his thing. Combine Cook with Tedesco and Walker through a tiring Maroons middle and it spells Blues victory.

One of the biggest issues the Blues had in the first game of the series was their kicking game. While no Half kick well if the forward pack lays a bad platform but the halves poor Game 1 kicking performance was not one warranted by the forwards performance. It seems that Fittler is hoping Walker can provide a running game from the five-eighth position, but the kicking game is still going to be key to them winning or losing. In Game 1 New South Wales made more run meters, had a faster average play the ball speed and made almost 100 more post contact meters despite having only 3 more runs. Yet, Queensland made 60 more meters from kicks.

This just cannot happen. Both Cleary and Walker will have to find grass, make Holmes and the Queensland wingers turn and chase kicks and give their defence a good starting point deep in the Maroons half of the field.

Left-side Defence

In Game 1, New South Wales right and left-side defence couldn’t have been more different. The Blues right-side defence of Frizell (44–0), Cleary (29–2), Gutherson (32–2) and Addo-Carr (14–0) combined for 119 tackles with 4 missed. The left side of Cordner (23–3), Keary (17–4), Wighton (10–7) and Tupou (3–1) combined for 53 tackles, missing 15. This means that the right edge completed 96.6% of their tackles and the left completed only 71.7%. The numbers speak for themselves, there is no game of rugby league on earth where it is acceptable to miss 28% of your tackles. The entire team made 395 and missed 26 tackles. The left side missed 15 and only made 53. These stats are truly breathtaking.

With Crichton coming in to replace Cordner and the more robust Walker replacing the slight Luke Keary, one can only hope that Wighton is better and the left edge can match the right’s defensive effort and efficiency.

Queensland can be better too

Unfortunately, its true. Despite being awarded Man of the Match, Cherry-Evans was far from his best and the same can be said for his halves partner and Grand final winning five-eighth, Cameron Munster. If the entire team can improve slightly and these two can combine to be at their best along with the addition of Holmes out the back, there is every chance that Queensland’s best will be too good for the boys in blue. I don’t think it will happen but I am certainly not ruling it out. If nothing else, Queensland winning all but two series between the ages of 8 and 18, its not to rule out a Queensland victory, no matter what.

The fact of the matter is, both teams are going to be much better for the run this game. Some players have not played for weeks and those that have are even worse off, having either just won a Grand Final and wanting to celebrate it as usual, or having just lost one and not being allowed to wallow in the pain that they would usually be able til do until pre-season. With changes to both teams, I think they will be ready to rock and roll for Game 2. It doesn’t get much better than the Blues fighting to stay alive in the series and the Maroons wanting nothing more than to put the foot to their throats. I think its safe to expect a better performance from both teams come Wednesday night.

This is a State of Origin series like never before. Players are playing the most competitive and important games of their lives when they are supposed to be downing beers on the beach. Everything is different this season but Blues fans will be hoping that the Blues bouncing back after a 18–14 loss isn’t one of them.